Da Corona

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Ddrak
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Re: Da Corona

Post by Ddrak » Thu May 07, 2020 7:25 am

I think there's a lot of wishful thinking in those reports:

Focusing on aged care to the exclusion of all else is a false hope. Yes - more screening is good, but you lock down "perfectly healthy people" because you don't want all of them infected either, leaving it impossible to protect your vulnerable. Look at the stats on infection rates and you'll see that younger people tend to be spreaders much more often than the elderly. Also note that those "perfectly healthy people" are still half those dying in most cases. This isn't an exclusively old-person disease.

Sweden is a very poor example - one of my friends is an epidemiologist over there and is continually noting how much worse Sweden is doing than any other Scandinavian nation in fatalities, by orders of magnitude. Similarly, there efforts to combat the virus are led by a guy who has continually said that he's not that worried about the death count and wants to race to herd immunity - which is pretty much the opposite of protecting anyone. Their aged care facilities have fared worse than any comparable nation, and only looks good in comparison to nations that have individually fared very poorly, like the UK or US. Hold them up to Finland or Norway and their incompetent handling is evident.

Florida's death count is still on a much steeper climb than NY. I don't buy any of these premature back-patting efforts of states that are mad keen to reopen and protect investments over lives. NY fared particularly badly because of the unique nature of NYC and the fact it was an early epicentre.

The Israeli "maths" are laughable - comparing infection rates to total case numbers is guaranteed to drop after 4-6 weeks because *that's when people get better from the initial infection*!!! You need to compare it to the current active case numbers, and you'll see a much clearer picture of how the transmission is strongly affected by social distancing.

Counterpoint on the graph: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... -city.html.

Ventilators are used on very few cases - less than 1%. Prognosis once you're on a ventilator is poor - less than 20% make it through. Intubation does *not* limit the spread - it is extremely hazardous for the staff involved as it sprays lung goop everywhere. You do a lot less spreading if you just let them die without intubation. The studies I've seen show CPAP is relatively useless against the class of people they are putting on ventilators (BiPAP) because CPAP make it *harder* to breathe out. Whether CPAP would help if introduced earlier is another interesting question though.

And sorry, not going to give Project Veritas any oxygen. They are well known to cut and dub things to push a preconceived agenda.

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Kulaf
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Re: Da Corona

Post by Kulaf » Thu May 07, 2020 11:40 pm

"They are well known to cut and dub things to push a preconceived agenda."

Hate to tell you, but you just described every news organization on planet Earth.

The 7 day moving average for daily deaths in FL is flat as a pancake.

As to economics over protecting life, if/when the world falls into an economic depression, let's have this discussion again in 3-5 years and compare death tolls.

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Ddrak » Sun May 10, 2020 6:51 am

Some news orgs are worse than others, and Veritas is about as straight as Moore. :)

7 day average on new deaths is flat for FL (and the US as a whole for that matter), which means the virus is currently spreading about as fast as people are recovering/dying. That is almost by definition the wrong time to ease restrictions, in fact that's a pretty clear signal that restrictions need to be stronger.

As for the economic argument, are you suggesting Thanos was the good guy?

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Kulaf » Sun May 10, 2020 1:56 pm

Are you suggesting that COVID-19 is going to kill half of all life in the universe?

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Kulaf » Sun May 10, 2020 6:09 pm

This......is not going to go over well:

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Ddrak » Wed May 13, 2020 6:04 am

Kulaf wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 1:56 pm
Are you suggesting that COVID-19 is going to kill half of all life in the universe?
Nope, but the argument I'm hearing is that the economic benefits of letting a bunch of people die is a good outcome. That's basically Thanos' pitch even though he was a little more extreme and efficient.

And that letter is fake.

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Kulaf » Thu May 14, 2020 3:33 pm

Actually it's a policy issue that has to weigh death one way or another. People are dying right now because of the medical shutdown on all other procedures. Transplant patients are dying, people are dying from other critical procedures that are not being performed. Suicides are going to skyrocket, that is not speculation, it is fact. Simply examine the increase in suicides during the economic downturn in 2007.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/recession- ... ca-europe/

It's a shit sandwich no matter how you slice it. There is no safe way to reopen the economy without a cure. That could come as late as a year from now.

Life is not safe, but you do have to live it.

P.S. The movie Thanos's motives are made up bullshit. Canon is that Thanos killed off half of the universe not for any altruistic reason. He did it because he was in love with the Personification of Death and wanted to impress her. I know, I have the entire Infinity Gauntlet series in my other room.

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Kulaf » Fri May 15, 2020 1:23 pm


Kulaf
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Re: Da Corona

Post by Kulaf » Fri May 15, 2020 2:04 pm

Not allowing people to go to the hospital for treatment, is killing people:

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Ddrak » Mon May 18, 2020 6:02 am

UNICEF is correct - lockdowns in developing countries are a very different equation to first world nations. They make a good deal of sense if your base disease rate is low, but where it's not then you've got a much worse balancing act.

The second article is the whole premise behind lockdowns in first world nations - not overloading the hospital system so people who need treatment can receive it.

What concerns me the most is the half dozen sailors on the Roosevelt that have a documented positive -> negative -> positive cycle. If you can get it twice then herd immunity is worthless and a vaccine may not be effective.

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Kulaf » Mon May 18, 2020 1:38 pm

Most likely a false positive at first, or not enough initial exposure to create enough antibodies in the first place.

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Kulaf » Mon May 18, 2020 2:01 pm


Ddrak
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Re: Da Corona

Post by Ddrak » Tue May 19, 2020 5:54 am

Kulaf wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 2:01 pm
Powerful video.....hard to watch:

https://www.10tv.com/article/ohio-state ... l-2020-may
Can understand how that can happen, and social distancing/stay-at-home orders are definitely a trade off. My 11 year old is climbing the walls and *very* happy that school is going back on Monday (we have 12 active cases in our state). Given we're measuring a handful of deaths in this case vs. the potential of 5% of the entire population dying, it's not hard to understand the correct decision, even if it's crappy. That's potentially a false dichotomy though - there's a decent spectrum of phasing between and it's hell for anyone to get it right with a 2-4 week feedback cycle against exponential growth.

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Kulaf » Wed May 20, 2020 3:44 pm

Ddrak wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 6:02 am
UNICEF is correct - lockdowns in developing countries are a very different equation to first world nations.
And yet, vaccinations are down dramatically in NY:

https://www.politico.com/states/new-yor ... ic-1284709
The number of vaccines administered to kids in the city dropped 63 percent in the six-week period from March 23 to May 9, compared to the same period last year. For children older than two, the decline was a dramatic 91 percent. For children age two and under, vaccines dropped by 42 percent.

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Kulaf » Fri May 22, 2020 1:44 pm

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... -lockdowns
“The numbers are unprecedented,” Dr. Michael deBoisblanc of John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek, California, told ABC 7 News about the increase of deaths by suicide, adding that he’s seen a “year’s worth of suicides” in the last four weeks alone.

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Kulaf » Sun May 24, 2020 12:17 am

Where is Gelsolin when we need it?

https://youtu.be/tsNp_4tBPvM

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Re: Da Corona

Post by Ddrak » Thu May 28, 2020 6:16 am

Kulaf wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:44 pm
Ddrak wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 6:02 am
UNICEF is correct - lockdowns in developing countries are a very different equation to first world nations.
And yet, vaccinations are down dramatically in NY:

https://www.politico.com/states/new-yor ... ic-1284709
The number of vaccines administered to kids in the city dropped 63 percent in the six-week period from March 23 to May 9, compared to the same period last year. For children older than two, the decline was a dramatic 91 percent. For children age two and under, vaccines dropped by 42 percent.
Which seems pretty crazy to me. Over here, we had more uptake of Flu Vaccine in the first 2 weeks of the season than the entire season last year. Not that Flu Vaccine helps with COVID-19, but it's preferred not to have both at the same time.

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