Obama wins!

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Harlowe
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Obama wins!

Post by Harlowe » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:52 pm

Even Fox has called it. No big surprises really and I'm looking forward to the next 4 years. ((happy dance))

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Lurker » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:56 pm

I was confident of a win but I never expected it to be called this early! Awesome!

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Torakus » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:10 pm

I was really surprised that Fox actually called it first. They gave Obama Wisconsin way before CNN and Politico waited much longer until Oregon and Colorado sealed the deal making Florida a non player.

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Alluveal » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:43 pm

YAY for my VAGINA!

In all seriousness . . . my younger brother (who is a republican) posted this on his FB page:
Congrats to Obama and those who voted for him. To my party it's time to move on. Time to move ahead substantially on women's and gay rights and immigrant reform. It's time to drop the religious right and embrace progress while still being conservative fiscally. It's time to stop fighting progress in the name of Jesus. It's time to realize Colorado Republicans are the future.
Very proud of him.

I wonder if (for many people) it came down to choosing human rights (gay marriage, woman's body, healthcare, immigration issues) over the phat fiscal lewts that Romney promised. Maybe people are saying that they're tired of being dicked around by GOP fuckwits who think some magical, unicorn-riding fairy lives in my uterus and will sprinkle happy dust into my ovaries to prevent rape during a pregnancy.

I don't know.

In other news, thank you Colorado for going blue. The only good thing about us swinging red is that I could have made a meme that said, "We went red, but we're all GREEN baby!" (pot legalized in Colorado).

Anyway, I can sleep tonight.

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Minute » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:51 pm

Colorado legalized marijuana too. Double win for Tax & Lulu
Fallakin Kuvari wrote:Because laws that require voters to have an ID (Something they are required to have anyway) are bad.... :roll:

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Alluveal » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:08 am

Benny's and Krispy Kremes here we come.

In all seriousness, we had over 1 million people vote for the legalization of pot. That tells me that this issue isn't just a bunch of stoners sitting around sucking on a bong all night and watching poorly-drawn cartoons on Boomerang. It's about the average person. Smoker or non-smoker. Now we'll get 40 million dollars for education. Give us a year or two and every kid in a Colorado classroom will have a friggin' i-pad at their desks.

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Harlowe » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:11 am

Oh and for Fallakin - I think Nate Silver called all but one race. Sooo, yeah that poll-math thing is pretty sweet.

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Harlowe » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:59 am

Great, great speech. I'm feeling really proud of our President right now.

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Ddrak » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:27 am

Harlowe wrote:Oh and for Fallakin - I think Nate Silver called all but one race. Sooo, yeah that poll-math thing is pretty sweet.
??

He got 50/50 on states, which is actually less probable than his probabilities would indicate.

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Turaylon Soulshadow » Wed Nov 07, 2012 7:19 am

I'm so disappointed in America right now...Gary Johnson was the only person running who could do a proper job and really make everyone happy, and we couldn't even get 5% of the popular vote...for shame, America. Congratulations to the uneducated, media-blinded masses for giving us another 4 years of bullshit. At least he's better than Mittens.
I'd like to see things from your point of view but I can't get my head that far up my ass.

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Lurker » Wed Nov 07, 2012 7:58 am

Turaylon,
Gary Johnson would have been the worst President in history. Given the choice between Gary Johnson and Romney I'd vote for Romney in a second. Gary Johnson's positions on domestic issues, his foreign policy, his ability to actually govern the country... he would have been disastrous.

I don't think you realize how silly you look with your non-stop talk about Gary Johnson.

Unless your Gary Johnson posts are just snark, in which case I'd say your snark was a little over the top but otherwise captured the crazy perfectly.

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Harlowe » Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:23 am

IMO Jill Stein was the only worthy third-party candidate. I think Gary Johnson would have been a nightmare dealing with the very real climate issues we have.

You should be pissed off at all the big "L" Libertarians that voted for Mitt. Those are the only ones that would have given him 5%.

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Lurker » Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:26 am

Ddrak wrote:[Nate Silver] got 50/50 on states, which is actually less probable than his probabilities would indicate.
Can you explain what you are talking about?

Here's Nates final forecast
final forecast.JPG
And here's the actual results
actual results.JPG
====

Edit: And... NEVERMIND! I completely misunderstood what you meant by 50/50. :lol:

In other words, he got them ALL correct.
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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Harlowe » Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:42 am

I thought one swung the other way, but I was wrong! I've said from the beginning, whether you like what you see or not, fivethirtyeight (aka Nate Silver) is the most reliable read on the overall polling.

He was great on Colbert....
"Are you trying to put the pundits out of work?" Colbert asked. "Because CNN doesn't need more help."

"I'm not very pro-pundit," he said. "If pundits were on the ballot against ... ebola, I might vote ebola, or third party."

He added that his model was "not really that complicated, but people treat it like it's Galileo or something really heretical." he said. “There are many things that are much more complicated than looking at the polls and taking an average and counting to 270, right?”

Silver also addressed the state of the race, which many pundits are dubbing "too close to call."

"There were 23 state polls the other day and Obama was ahead in 22 of them," he said. "It's not a coin toss ... the race has broken toward President Obama."

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by MeGusta » Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:54 am

I was completely wrong about undercounted Republicans. That is what I get for living in a blood red state.

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Lurker » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:23 am

Damn. I'm sorry I missed this live. :)
Josh Marshall wrote:Shortly after Fox and everyone else called Ohio and the election for President Obama, Rove staged a live TV mutiny. He insisted that the Ohio call had been premature and then forced Fox’s Megan Kelly to make an SNL like walk through the Fox building and confront the network’s official number counters with Rove’s objections.

I’m sure I saw a thought bubble over the numbers guys’ heads that said “What the f*$k are you guys doing here?” But the guy calmly explained to Kelly that yes they were quite certain that Obama had defeated Romney and it was over. Kelly then walked back through the Fox building and gave the news to Rove. But it still wasn’t over.

This full Fox News network meltdown continued for a while. And then a while later I went back over to the TV wall in TPM’s office and saw that they’d brought in Michael Barone — key political numbers guy who just a day ago was saying that Romney would win with 70,000 electoral votes — to basically calmly, empathetically talk Rove down from the ledge.

So basically at this point Barone is like half grief counselor, half hostage negotiator trying to get Rove through Kubler-Ross’s 5 stages of grief.
Video in the link.

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Harlowe » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:49 am

That was the best high theater Lurker, second only to Victoria Jackson and Trump having epic meltdowns.

Some on the Right get it.....
"Our party needs to realize that it’s too old and too white and too male and it needs to figure out how to catch up with the demographics of the country before it’s too late," said Al Cardenas, the head of the American Conservative Union and a longtime GOP leader. "Our party needs a lot of work to do if we expect to be competitive in the near future."

Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), a prospective 2014 statewide candidate in a state moving sharply to the middle, was just as blunt: "After tonight, the GOP had better figure out that a big tent sounds good, but if there aren’t any seats in it, what good is it."

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Embar Angylwrath » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:56 pm

Nate Silver was dead on with his predictions, and yes, I think he called all 50 state races.

Congrats to the Obama team, they ran a brilliant campaign. They were better able to identify their consituancy, target them, and their ground game and get out the vote surpassed Romney's efforts. So two billion dollars later we have.. the same. Rep controlled House, thin Dem margin in teh Seante and a Dem in the WH. That said, there were lessons for both sides in this election. Both the left and right of America are tired of gridlock, and I think both sides caught a good whiff of that. The Reps know they stand to lose a chance at the WH if they can't up their favorability with minorities, especically Hispanics. The demographics in the country are changing, and the Reps, if they want a shot at leadership again, need to accept that and modify their positions to account for it.

But for the next four years, Obama is our President. Time to move forward on issues both sides can agree on.
Correction Mr. President, I DID build this, and please give Lurker a hug, we wouldn't want to damage his self-esteem.

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Minute » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:02 pm

"Our party needs a lot of work to do if we expect to be competitive in the near future."
While I love the fact that they might change some of their platform, because it really has moved away from fiscal responsibility to insanity, I hate that they are doing it so that they can 'compete'. It suggests that the motivation behind their actions isn't to come up with what they feel is best for the country but simply to beat the other side. I'm totally fine with people having different views than I do, but to have them simply because they oppose my own is fucking stupid.
Fallakin Kuvari wrote:Because laws that require voters to have an ID (Something they are required to have anyway) are bad.... :roll:

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Re: Obama wins!

Post by Harlowe » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:40 pm

I know some progressives don't love how inclusive he sounded (because of all the gridlock), but I liked these parts the best...

“We may have battled fiercely, but it’s only because we love this country deeply and we care so strongly about its future,” he said of his opponent, Mitt Romney.

“Democracy in a nation of 300 million can be noisy and messy and complicated,” he said. “We have our own opinions. Each of us has deeply held beliefs. And when we go through tough times, when we make big decisions as a country, it necessarily stirs passions, stirs up controversy.”

He continued: “That won’t change after tonight. And it shouldn’t. These arguments we have are a mark of our liberty. And we can never forget that as we speak people in distant nations are risking their lives right now just for a chance to argue.”

“I believe we can seize this future together,” he said, “because we are not as divided as our politics suggest. We’re not as cynical as the pundits believe. We are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions, and we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states, we are and forever will be the United States of America and together with your help and God’s grace we will continue our journey forward and remind the world why it is that we live in the greatest nation on Earth.”

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