Election Prediction Poll...

Dumbass pinko-nazi-neoconservative-hippy-capitalists.

Who will win, and by how much

Poll ended at Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:40 am

Romney gets 320+
0
No votes
Romney gets 300-319
2
14%
Romney gets 280-299
2
14%
Romney gets 270-279
0
No votes
Tied
0
No votes
Obama gets 270-279
1
7%
Obama gets 280-299
6
43%
Obama gets 300-319
1
7%
Obama gets 320+
2
14%
 
Total votes: 14

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Harlowe
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Harlowe » Mon Nov 05, 2012 2:01 pm

Oh and on Nate Silver's "math" Fallakin. You don't like the picture he paints, I get that, but fivethirtyeight polls have been pretty spot on in predicting winners. I think it's only missed a handful of seats in the past 8 years

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Partha » Mon Nov 05, 2012 2:15 pm

The real problem I have is weighting for something directly correlated with the result, particularly when you don't have stronger stats on that factor. Polls do weight for "likely voter party alignment" and the like, which is where I was really driving against.
Most pollsters don't weight by party ID. Rasmussen does, however. Take that as you will.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by MeGusta » Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:42 pm

Harlowe wrote:voter suppression in which several state reps have said would deliver their state to Romney, paid off.
I will pay close attention to voter totals compared to past elections for any proof of successful suppression.
Harlowe wrote:I think it's only missed a handful of seats in the past 8 years
That would indeed be amazing since it has only existed since 2008. Prior to that he had a diary on DailyKOS
Partha wrote:Most pollsters don't weight by party ID. Rasmussen does, however. Take that as you will.
CNN Poll today has it tied 40% to 49% with a sample of D+11. The actual spread in 2008 was D+7. Take that as you will.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Turaylon Soulshadow » Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:53 pm

I'm going to break out every piece of religious paraphernalia I can find and try to convince whatever higher power there is to either have Gary Johnson win, or resurrect Teddy Roosevelt and John F Kennedy.

If Gary Johnson can get 5% of the votes we can have a REAL election in 2016.
I'd like to see things from your point of view but I can't get my head that far up my ass.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Lurker » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:47 pm

MeGusta wrote:CNN Poll today has it tied 40% to 49% with a sample of D+11. The actual spread in 2008 was D+7. Take that as you will.
It's amusing that you agree with Ddrak that "the only accurate polls are the ones that take a truly random sampling and just use that raw result", but then want the pollster to manipulate the poll to adjust for party ID. The poll answers were the poll answers. It's not CNN's fault that the percentage of people identifying as Democrats was higher.

Independents aren't a monolithic voting bloc; the vast majority of independents are closet partisans. It's not surprising that when the Republican brand is in the toilet Republicans self-identify as independents. It would be much more informative if you could tell us the percentages in 2008 and 2012 for a) Democrats + Dem leaning independents vs b) Republicans + Rep leaning independents?

Of course, we'll know the answer tomorrow so why bother.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Lurker » Mon Nov 05, 2012 6:08 pm

Follow up to my last post regarding the CNN poll...

Here's CNN's methodology.
All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for gender, race, age, education, region of country, telephone usage and whether respondents own or rent their homes. Registered voters were asked questions about their likelihood of voting, past voting behavior, and interest in the campaign; based on answers to those questions, 693 respondents were classified as likely voters. Respondents who reported that they had already cast an absentee ballot or voted early were automatically classified as likely voters. Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.
CNN never weights by Party ID.

There's a simple explanation for why Romney is doing so well with Independents and why there is a larger gap between Democrats and Republicans.

More Republicans are self-identifying as Independents because the Republican brand sucks.

That reduces the percentage of poll respondents self-identifying as Republicans and increases the percentage of Independents. It makes it look like Romney's support among independents has surged, when there are actually just more closet Republicans self-identifying as Independents. It increases the percentage gap between Democrats and Republicans... a gap that ignores the percentage of independents.

Now imagine the level of inaccuracy you'd introduce if you tried to unskew the poll by altering the percentage of Republicans.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Harlowe » Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:30 pm

I was thinking two election cycles = 8 years, but it's really 4.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Fallakin Kuvari » Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:44 pm

Harlowe wrote:Along with all the generally negative press for Romney (previous FEMA comments, Christie praising Obama, Bloomberg supporting Obama, tax loop holes, Chrysler coming out several times to calling him out on his ad, along with his and Ryan's reputation for not being very honest) and general good news for Obama (like jobs numbers, economy, gas prices, his response to Sandy) - I just don't see an electoral likihood of him winning - he's not going to get NH, WI, IA or even OH imo. He will most likely get FL. But even CO and VA lean Obama, so it's possible but not likely. Even with those that will only take him to 257. He would need to get all of those and either WI plus one more or all of those and OH.

Stranger things have happened, but Romney comes off as the most dishonest sales guy in the room and Ryan comes off as a weasle of epic proporations. Romney has most likely been tax evading into the tens of millions via Caymen's or the Irish-Dutch loop hole and by borrowing his church's exempt status http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-2 ... tions.html, so the guy isn't giving a trust me, I'm a decent guy vibe to the public anymore and he hasn't all along for women, hispanics or minorities.

The guy is losing.
You, madam, are delusional.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Fallakin Kuvari » Mon Nov 05, 2012 10:01 pm

Lurker wrote:
Fallakin wrote:Have you looked at the internals on any of these polls?
I know from personal experience that if you have to start diving into poll internals for good news your candidate is not winning. I'd love to see your evidence though. Please post the internals for all the polls and why you think it indicates that Romney is actually ahead.
I dont think people understand that Rasmussen polls 15,000 people a month. Showing a flip from D+7 in 08 to R+6 today is no small thing.
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/stat ... 2482636800
Monmouth National poll has race tied at 48%. Romney is up 16 among indies. Obama gets 2% more crossover support. D+4 sample.
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/stat ... 1700279296
WaPo/ABC poll has Obama up 3, 50-47. Poll moved from D+4 yesterday to D+6 today -- 2% more Dems = 2% jump for O. BTW, that's almost 2008...
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/stat ... 7574013953
Romney's range with independents goes from -1 (Gallup) to +22 (CNN). Indies' share of electorate varies from 18% (Fox) to 41% (NBC/WSJ).
https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/statuse ... 7482112000


These are just from this afternoon.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Ddrak » Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:55 am

Share among independents is pretty worthless - it's more likely measuring the relative number of people who's claim to be a Democrat vs. Republican rather than any particular swing in voting. Like I've said, the only polls that matter are the ones that go state-by-state and measure likely voters because they're measuring the actual outcome.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Arathena » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:19 am

Well, we have our first returns, courtesy of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location in NH. Dixville: 23 O, 9 R, 1 Johnson. Hart's Location: 5 O, 5 R.

Interesting to note that at Hart's, 7 people voted for the Republican / Teaparty Senate candidate, 3 for the Democratic candidate... Meaning Romney lost Tea Party votes to Obama.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Ddrak » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:21 am

Looking around the EC modellers:

Five Thirty Eight: 91.6% Obama
Princeton Election Consortium: 99.8% Obama
Votamatic: >95% Obama
RCP: (No percentage, but state map consistent with above predictions)

I think you'll see Obama with 332 at the end of this, essentially winning everything contested but NC. I could well be wrong on FL, but predictions are more interesting if you go the extreme.

@Ara - have fun with Romney visiting today!

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Fallakin Kuvari » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:39 am

Arathena wrote:Well, we have our first returns, courtesy of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location in NH. Dixville: 23 O, 9 R, 1 Johnson. Hart's Location: 5 O, 5 R.

Interesting to note that at Hart's, 7 people voted for the Republican / Teaparty Senate candidate, 3 for the Democratic candidate... Meaning Romney lost Tea Party votes to Obama.
Thats wildly speculative.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Harlowe » Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:07 am

Fallakin, lets be honest here, if anyone is delusional it's the folks that desperately ignore the writing on the wall. The majority of Americans aren't motivated by cynicism and scare tactics. If they were, we deserve what we get, but I have more faith in our fellow citizens.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Ddrak » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:05 am

I can't help but think Romney is the GOP's John Kerry.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Fallakin Kuvari » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:23 am

Harlowe wrote:Fallakin, lets be honest here, if anyone is delusional it's the folks that desperately ignore the writing on the wall. The majority of Americans aren't motivated by cynicism and scare tactics. If they were, we deserve what we get, but I have more faith in our fellow citizens.
So by that logic the majority of Americans wouldn't be motivated to vote for Obama. Thanks for that.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Harlowe » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:24 am

Sore loser already?

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Fallakin Kuvari » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:42 am

No, merely pointing out that up to this point Obama's campaign has been much more "motivated by cynicism and scare tactics" than Romney's has.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Lurker » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:09 pm

But what about the poll internals!?! The INTERNALS!?!

oh yeah... Ohio was just announced.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Arathena » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:16 pm

Lurker wrote:But what about the poll internals!?! The INTERNALS!?!

oh yeah... Ohio was just announced.
Clearly, the ballots are skewed.
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