Election Prediction Poll...

Dumbass pinko-nazi-neoconservative-hippy-capitalists.

Who will win, and by how much

Poll ended at Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:40 am

Romney gets 320+
0
No votes
Romney gets 300-319
2
14%
Romney gets 280-299
2
14%
Romney gets 270-279
0
No votes
Tied
0
No votes
Obama gets 270-279
1
7%
Obama gets 280-299
6
43%
Obama gets 300-319
1
7%
Obama gets 320+
2
14%
 
Total votes: 14

Ddrak
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Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Ddrak » Sat Nov 03, 2012 8:40 am

So, just for kicks, a poll to predict the election.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Garrdor » Sun Nov 04, 2012 11:30 am

Looks like 4 more years
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by MeGusta » Sun Nov 04, 2012 3:03 pm

I am predicting a Romney win contrary to polling based on a misrepresentation of party identification sampling.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Partha » Sun Nov 04, 2012 3:39 pm

MeGusta wrote:I am predicting a Romney win contrary to polling based on a misrepresentation of party identification sampling.
Nice bridge.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Harlowe » Sun Nov 04, 2012 6:10 pm

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

His chances have dropped down to 14.9% chance to win.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Fallakin Kuvari » Sun Nov 04, 2012 9:52 pm

MeGusta wrote:I am predicting a Romney win contrary to polling based on a misrepresentation of party identification sampling.
Theres also the fact that Romney has been leading with independents in polls throughout October.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Harlowe » Sun Nov 04, 2012 11:38 pm

You're not going to be able to hide behind wishful thinking.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Fallakin Kuvari » Sun Nov 04, 2012 11:59 pm

You're can't hide behind Nate Silver's "math".
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Ddrak » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:34 am

It's all chances. All outlets that work on an electoral college basis are showing a better chance for Obama than Romney, but polls are polls and have enough slack in them to make it far from a "done deal".

The only accurate polls are the ones that take a truly random sampling and just use that raw result. Anything else is blatant statistical falsehood.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by MeGusta » Mon Nov 05, 2012 6:33 am

^^This
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Lurker » Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:07 am

Ddrak wrote:The only accurate polls are the ones that take a truly random sampling and just use that raw result. Anything else is blatant statistical falsehood.
So you don't think pollsters should weight results to match known demographic data? You think it provides an accurate picture to poll 2000 random people and report the results even if 1900 of them happened to be, through pure chance, old white men? Pollsters weight for known factors for a reason. Not for party ID, but for age, sex, race, so the random sample is representative of the population.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Fallakin Kuvari » Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:03 am

Lurker wrote:
Ddrak wrote:The only accurate polls are the ones that take a truly random sampling and just use that raw result. Anything else is blatant statistical falsehood.
So you don't think pollsters should weight results to match known demographic data? You think it provides an accurate picture to poll 2000 random people and report the results even if 1900 of them happened to be, through pure chance, old white men? Pollsters weight for known factors for a reason. Not for party ID, but for age, sex, race, so the random sample is representative of the population.
Yea, because all the internals on these polls have been leaning heavily republican.... :roll: :lol:

The internals on these polls paint a much different picture than the media is reporting; hell the movement on the ground paints a much different picture than what the media is reporting.
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Lurker » Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:16 am

Fallakin wrote:Yea, because all the internals on these polls have been leaning heavily republican.... :roll: :lol:
Fallakin, I was just giving an example in my question to Ddrak. I could have easily asked if the poll would be accurate if the random sample only contained single white women.
Fallakin wrote:The internals on these polls paint a much different picture than the media is reporting; hell the movement on the ground paints a much different picture than what the media is reporting.
You can only make the first part of your statement by cherry picking internals for a few polls. The second part is just wishful thinking. But hey, we'll find out in 48 hours.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Ddrak » Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:19 am

Lurker wrote:So you don't think pollsters should weight results to match known demographic data? You think it provides an accurate picture to poll 2000 random people and report the results even if 1900 of them happened to be, through pure chance, old white men? Pollsters weight for known factors for a reason. Not for party ID, but for age, sex, race, so the random sample is representative of the population.
Nope. If they are that worried about the poll from the demographics then they should throw the whole thing out and start over.

Let's take the 1900/2000 old-white-men argument. Let's assume the demographics say 300/2000 should be old-white-men. If you reweight then you've got an effective sample of maybe 130, with a 95% confidence around the +/- 9% which is entirely worthless in an election poll. If you take the much more likely case of a few percent out from demographics, I'm not sure the increased error from tinkering really does much to the result.

What you're advocating is actually doing a bunch of parallel polls for slices of the population and then combining them?

The real problem I have is weighting for something directly correlated with the result, particularly when you don't have stronger stats on that factor. Polls do weight for "likely voter party alignment" and the like, which is where I was really driving against.


As for what the polls are saying - all state-by-state poll tracking sites are showing a shift to Obama over the last few days. Take that however you want.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Fallakin Kuvari » Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:42 am

Lurker wrote:
Fallakin wrote:The internals on these polls paint a much different picture than the media is reporting; hell the movement on the ground paints a much different picture than what the media is reporting.
You can only make the first part of your statement by cherry picking internals for a few polls. The second part is just wishful thinking. But hey, we'll find out in 48 hours.
Have you looked at the internals on any of these polls?
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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Lurker » Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:47 am

Ddrak wrote:The real problem I have is weighting for something directly correlated with the result, particularly when you don't have stronger stats on that factor. Polls do weight for "likely voter party alignment" and the like, which is where I was really driving against.
But we do have strong stats for the demographic makeup of the population. All pollsters make sure their samples are representative of that makeup. So if you want the most unaltered poll results you could look at the "registered voter" results, prior to the application of any "likely voter" screening. "Likely voter" screens are where the guesswork comes in. Don't conflate "likely voter" screens with weighting for demographics.
Fallakin wrote:Have you looked at the internals on any of these polls?
I know from personal experience that if you have to start diving into poll internals for good news your candidate is not winning. I'd love to see your evidence though. Please post the internals for all the polls and why you think it indicates that Romney is actually ahead.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Embar Angylwrath » Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:19 pm

Harlowe wrote:You're not going to be able to hide behind wishful thinking.
Like the Dems did when they thought they'd keep the House?
Correction Mr. President, I DID build this, and please give Lurker a hug, we wouldn't want to damage his self-esteem.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Harlowe » Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:39 pm

What would that have to do with anything? Or is that just a weak comeback? If people try to convince themselves of something they just wish would happen in spite of information to the contrary, they are just kidding themselves. Dem or Rep.

I don't think Romney has a chance of winning anymore. I did several weeks ago, it seemed 50/50 to me, but now I don't feel he really has a chance. If he does, it's the most cynical win ever and the voter suppression in which several state reps have said would deliver their state to Romney, paid off.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Lurker » Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:44 pm

I'm sure it wasn't his intention, but Embar's little dig actually bolstered your point.

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Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Post by Harlowe » Mon Nov 05, 2012 1:31 pm

Along with all the generally negative press for Romney (previous FEMA comments, Christie praising Obama, Bloomberg supporting Obama, tax loop holes, Chrysler coming out several times to calling him out on his ad, along with his and Ryan's reputation for not being very honest) and general good news for Obama (like jobs numbers, economy, gas prices, his response to Sandy) - I just don't see an electoral likihood of him winning - he's not going to get NH, WI, IA or even OH imo. He will most likely get FL. But even CO and VA lean Obama, so it's possible but not likely. Even with those that will only take him to 257. He would need to get all of those and either WI plus one more or all of those and OH.

Stranger things have happened, but Romney comes off as the most dishonest sales guy in the room and Ryan comes off as a weasle of epic proporations. Romney has most likely been tax evading into the tens of millions via Caymen's or the Irish-Dutch loop hole and by borrowing his church's exempt status http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-2 ... tions.html, so the guy isn't giving a trust me, I'm a decent guy vibe to the public anymore and he hasn't all along for women, hispanics or minorities.

The guy is losing.

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