Search found 3573 matches

by Lurker
Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:47 am
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Election Prediction Poll...
Replies: 47
Views: 14556

Re: Election Prediction Poll...

The real problem I have is weighting for something directly correlated with the result, particularly when you don't have stronger stats on that factor. Polls do weight for "likely voter party alignment" and the like, which is where I was really driving against. But we do have strong stats for the d...
by Lurker
Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:16 am
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Election Prediction Poll...
Replies: 47
Views: 14556

Re: Election Prediction Poll...

Yea, because all the internals on these polls have been leaning heavily republican.... :roll: :lol: Fallakin, I was just giving an example in my question to Ddrak. I could have easily asked if the poll would be accurate if the random sample only contained single white women. The internals on these ...
by Lurker
Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:07 am
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Election Prediction Poll...
Replies: 47
Views: 14556

Re: Election Prediction Poll...

The only accurate polls are the ones that take a truly random sampling and just use that raw result. Anything else is blatant statistical falsehood. So you don't think pollsters should weight results to match known demographic data? You think it provides an accurate picture to poll 2000 random peop...
by Lurker
Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:40 am
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Second debate
Replies: 48
Views: 14065

Re: Second debate

Fallakin, You said that Romney is now ahead by 4% in PA. Is there a reason you only credit the one poll showing Romney leading in PA while ignoring the several polls showing Obama leading and the RCP average showing Obama leading?
by Lurker
Thu Oct 18, 2012 4:48 pm
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Second debate
Replies: 48
Views: 14065

Re: Second debate

What point are you arguing? That Romney didn't fail as badly as Harlowe's post indicated?
by Lurker
Thu Oct 18, 2012 6:43 am
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Second debate
Replies: 48
Views: 14065

Re: Second debate

Your description of the debate has taken biased and inaccurate to new heights. I'm being completely serious when I say this... if you really saw the debate the way you described it, your mind has been severely damaged by constant exposure to right-wing propaganda and you should seek immediate help.
by Lurker
Wed Oct 17, 2012 9:33 pm
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Second debate
Replies: 48
Views: 14065

Re: Second debate

Wow, what a completely unbiased and accurate description of what happened at the debate! :lol:
by Lurker
Wed Oct 17, 2012 6:39 pm
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Second debate
Replies: 48
Views: 14065

Re: Second debate

19 Reported Dead as Pakistanis Protest Muhammad Video Violent crowds furious over an anti-Islamic video made in the United States convulsed Pakistan’s largest cities on Friday, leaving up to 19 people dead and more than 160 injured in a day of government-sanctioned protests. It was the worst single...
by Lurker
Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:04 pm
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Second debate
Replies: 48
Views: 14065

Re: Second debate

Nobody cares that it took two weeks to officially label it an act of terrorism. Good luck with that line of attack. Romney looked like an ass trying to make an issue out of it.
by Lurker
Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:43 pm
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%
Replies: 42
Views: 15110

Re: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%

LOL, ok Partha, whatever helps you in your delusion. What's the delusion? Rasmussen was inaccurate in 2010. Not that it's relevant. Polls that were in the field on Oct 4 - Oct 6 certainly captured the bounce Romney got from the debate, but that seemed to fade quickly by Sunday. It's going to take a...
by Lurker
Tue Oct 09, 2012 3:38 pm
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%
Replies: 42
Views: 15110

Re: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%

Take "weighted" and replace with "over sampled". I used the wrong term. Polling companies are over-sampling Democrats to match the turnout in 2008. Changing the term doesn't change what you are saying. Polling companies aren't "over sampling Democrats". Other than Rasmussen, I'm not aware of any po...
by Lurker
Tue Oct 09, 2012 2:50 pm
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%
Replies: 42
Views: 15110

Re: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%

Also, its common knowledge that most polling companies are over sampling Democrats to mimic the turn-out percentages in the 2008 percentages. The assumption being that this election will have the same proportional turnout. Personally, I don't think that's safe assumption, do you? Common knowledge i...
by Lurker
Tue Oct 09, 2012 2:26 pm
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%
Replies: 42
Views: 15110

Re: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%

Whatever their polling method, the results have been more dependable and accurate than other polling compaines. Perhaps its because other polling companies weight Democrats moore havily, sometimes by 10% or more. Look at the 2008 election... Rasmussen consistantly out performed other polling agenci...
by Lurker
Tue Oct 09, 2012 7:40 am
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%
Replies: 42
Views: 15110

Re: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%

Andrew Sullivan sure panicks easy.
by Lurker
Mon Oct 08, 2012 2:29 pm
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%
Replies: 42
Views: 15110

Re: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%

A Wall Street Journal fact-check shows that part-time jobs declined and all of the gains in employment were due to full-time jobs. A lot of people — some of them very smart — are saying something false about today’s jobs report: That the unemployment rate fell only because lots of part-time jobs wer...
by Lurker
Mon Oct 08, 2012 8:53 am
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%
Replies: 42
Views: 15110

Re: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%

As sluggish as the economy is right now, things would have been infinitely worse if the Republicans had gotten their way and we had implemented a spending freeze instead of a stimulus, and had allowed the auto industry to collapse instead of rescuing it. And we still haven't forgotten that the Repub...
by Lurker
Fri Oct 05, 2012 2:32 pm
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%
Replies: 42
Views: 15110

Re: Jobs report: Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.8%

Except that unemployment didn't drop. Reporting of unemployment did. It's true that sometimes drops in the U3 unemployment rate can be explained by frustrated people dropping out of the work force, but that's not what the numbers show this time. The numbers do not show that people dropped out of th...
by Lurker
Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:04 am
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: The first debate
Replies: 18
Views: 6800

Re: The first debate

And yes, only if Congress fails to extend tax cuts that Obama wants ended in the first place. Again, you seem deeply confused. Here's what's on the page you reference. Can you point out which listed tax cuts Obama wants ended and for which income group? Impending Tax Increases Federal taxes are sch...
by Lurker
Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:59 am
Forum: Politics and Law
Topic: The first debate
Replies: 18
Views: 6800

Re: The first debate

And it'll come on the backs of the Middle class You linked to a study about the effects of going over the fiscal cliff. In the quote Embar linked, Biden was talking about raising taxes for high wage earners, a position that most Americans support. The fiscal cliff is a completely different issue an...